Monday, May 31, 2010

Probability

Let me first give you some introduction to Probability,

The mathematical theory of probability deals with patterns that occur in random events. For the theory of probability the nature of randomness is inessential. (Note for the record, that according to the 18th century French mathematician Marquis de Laplace randomness is a perceived phenomenon explained by human ignorance, while the late 20th century mathematics came with a realization that chaos may emerge as the result of deterministic processes.)

An experiment is a process - natural or set up deliberately - that has an observable outcome. In the deliberate setting, the word experiment and trial are synonymous. An experiment has a random outcome if the result of the experiment can't be predicted with absolute certainty.
An event is a collection of possible outcomes of an experiment. An event is said to occur as a result of an experiment if it contains the actual outcome of that experiment. Individual outcomes comprising an event are said to be favorable to that event. Events are assigned a measure of certainty which is called probability (of an event.)

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